The National Instant Criminal Background Check System is what retailers must use in the United States in order to sell firearms to buyers. Gun shops rely on the NICS system to fulfill the requirements of the “Brady Bill.” The National Shooting Sports Foundation, the firearm industry trade association, provides a report on the adjusted numbers of NICS checks for retail sales annually. Those numbers for 2024 came in.
The numbers are down across the board. The December numbers, also just released, are down as well. There was a 7.5% decrease in numbers when comparing December 2023 and December 2024. There were also 5.9% fewer NICS checks in the 4th quarter of 2024 when compared to 2023. The decrease in numbers, when comparing the two years was 3.5%.
What could be at play here in the latter part of 2024 seeing higher decreases is a phenomenon that was observed in 2017 and 2018 called the “Trump Slump.” While it’s not fair to peg this to Trump directly, what has been noticed in the past were sharp inclines in firearm purchases under certain Democratic presidents’ administrations or the potential of Democratic presidential wins.
“December’s totals topped 1.6 million background checks for the sale of a firearm at retail,” NSSF said in a release. “That brought the 2024 annual total to over 15.2 million background checks for the sale of firearms at retail.”
“We are proud that NSSF member companies continue to serve the American public that chooses to exercise their Second Amendment rights by the millions each month,” said NSSF President and CEO Joe Bartozzi. “These background check figures show strong sales and that today’s firearm manufacturers are delivering high-quality products. We are proud that our member companies continue to exceed the high standards that law-abiding Americans demand when it comes to the products that allow them to exercise their Second Amendment rights.”
The numbers that the NSSF is working with come from the FBI. The reason they’re adjusted is to account for jurisdictions that rely on the NICS system for running background checks for firearm permitting and related. Naturally, those numbers would be subtracted from the total.
“The adjusted NICS data were derived by subtracting out NICS purpose code permit checks and permit rechecks used by states for CCW permit application checks as well as checks on active CCW permit databases,” the NSSF explains. “NSSF started subtracting permit rechecks in February 2016.”
There are other anomalies with the data that needs to be paid attention to. The NSSF put the following disclaimer about the numbers out, and it’s important to understand when looking at the data:
Please note: Twenty-four states currently have at least one qualified alternative permit, which under the Brady Act allows the permit-holder, who has undergone a background check to obtain the permit, to purchase a firearm from a licensed dealer without a separate additional background check for that transfer. The number of NICS checks in these states does not include these legal transfers based on qualifying permits and NSSF does not adjust for these transfers.
What needs to be appreciated is that the number of sales through federally licensed dealers are likely higher than the reported numbers if permit holders from those selected point of contact states purchased firearms.
“Though not a direct correlation to firearms sales, the NSSF-adjusted NICS data provide an additional picture of current market conditions,” NSSF observed. “In addition to other purposes, NICS is used to check transactions for sales or transfers of new or used firearms.”
2024 may not be a record-shattering year in comparison to the last four, but it was still a good year for gun sales. 2020 saw the highest numbers that the NSSF has recorded, with 21.1 million checks. Sales numbers have continued to decline since, but not below pre-pandemic levels. The one pre-pandemic exception was 2016, which saw 15.7 million checks and it’s speculated that was due to a potential Hillary Clinton presidency.
How the next year to four years are going to shape up, we’ll have to see. A change in party of who’s in the White House will have a more beneficial effect on rights. We’ll have to see what that change does for sales.
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