As of mid-morning Wednesday, the Democrat primary for Montana’s 1st Congressional District remains too close to call for media outlets, but it would take a miracle for anti-gun activist and former gun salesman Ryan Busse to eke out a win.
With 96% of the votes counted, and about 2,500 votes estimated as still outstanding, Busse trails Sam Forstag by 2,859 votes. Forstag currently has 37.2% of the vote and Busse has 33.1%. In order for Busse to pull ahead, he’d need to win more than 90% of the estimated ballots yet to be counted.
So while the race hasn’t officially been called for Forstag as of this writing, it really would be the shock of the century in Montana politics for Busse to emerge victorious.
The good news for Busse is that he at least has some experience with political defeat. Two years ago Busse was the Democratic candidate for governor in Montana, and was utterly crushed by incumbent Greg Gianforte. Busse lost by 20.3 points, an even more lopsided loss than Kamala Harris experienced against Donald Trump in the state.
In his gubernatorial campaign two years ago, Busse sought to play down his relationship with the gun control group Giffords and his work as a senior advisor to the Biden campaign on gun control issues.
This time around, Busse’s campaign website doesn’t even mention gun control as an issue. Nor does it discuss his years as an anti-gun activist and paid witness in support of various gun control laws around the country. Instead, visitors are told:
Ryan is a passionate outdoorsman, a respected state and national conservation leader, and for more than 25 years, he also helped build an iconic American gun company from Kalispell. But he left that job because he feared irresponsible political extremism was threatening our public lands and our nation.
The website of Busse’s other main opponents in the MT-1 Democrat primary are similarly devoid of any mention of gun control. Sam Forstag, a smokejumper and union activist, is running on an “affordability” campaign and has been endorsed by Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, Bernie Sanders, and the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Russell Cleveland, who’s website describes him as a cattle rancher and entrepreneur, says he’s running to “end corruption, fix healthcare, and improve affordability.”
Busse could have stood out from his fellow Democrats if he’d leaned in to his years as an anti-gun activist, but while that might have given him a boost in the primary, it would come back to bite him in the general election. MT-1 is considered the more competitive of the state’s two congressional districts, but Republican Ryan Zinke still defeated his Democrat opponent by almost eight points in 2024. If November turns out to be a blue wave, MT-1 is one of those seats that could flip, but an out-and-proud gun grabber would have a much harder time winning the seat than a Democrat who keeps their mouth shut about gun control.
I feel pretty confident that the GOP will keep control of MT-1, though. More voters cast ballots in the contested Republican primary than the Democrat primary, which bodes well for conservatives this fall. And if Forstag does win, Republican candidate Aaron Flint will have a field day tying him to the far-left politics of Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio Cortez. The last Democrat to represent Montana in Washington, D.C. was former senator Jon Tester, and though Tester was a reliable vote for Democrats he took pains to craft a persona as much more moderate than the left wing of his party.
Assuming Busse doesn’t pull out the comeback of the century, what’s next for the gun salesman turned anti-gun activist? He’ll be 0-for-2 in political campaigns, but Giffords will probably be willing to take him back. After several years of running away from his support for gun control, Busse could soon lean back into his anti-gun activism. If so, I hope he’ll be at that endeavor as he’s been at winning public office.
Editor’s Note: The radical Left will stop at nothing to enact their radical gun control agenda and strip us of our Second Amendment rights.
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