The Food Crisis Has Already Started—Are You Ready?

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There’s a crisis possibly looming on the horizon—a food crisis. The downside of this developing crisis is just that it’s developing. Developing means it’s already begun. The indicators are all there. It’s started, and if things continue as they are, we may find ourselves in a serious food situation—with higher prices, holes on the shelves, and potential civil unrest.

TL;DR: The approaching food crisis is driven by four converging pressures: rising fertilizer costs, fuel and transportation disruptions, growing dependence on a fragile global supply chain, and worsening drought. These problems stack on top of each other, leaving little room for error in a just-in-time system. You can’t fix the system, but you can build a personal buffer—expand your food supply, source locally, stock staples when prices drop, and grow what you can—so your family stays fed when shelves run thin.

The Indicators Are There

Some of the indicators that are present lead to increased costs for both farmers and consumers. Increased costs at a time when many people are already financially strained—some to the breaking point. That breaking point happens when families go hungry. When people choose between heating fuel and eating food.

Other indicators point to a reduction in the available food supply. The most pressing immediate problem is an increased dependence on a vulnerable global supply chain. In the longer term, but just as pressing, is the impact of the worsening drought conditions on usable farm and ranch land around the nation.

For those like you—who prepare—you’re open to the mindset that, if the right circumstances are in place, anything is possible. In this case, the right circumstances are forming to warn us that there’s a greater-than-zero chance we could experience food shortages. Therefore, part of your mental ‘What-if’ drills we do as preppers is asking yourself: what if the food supply buckles?

FACTS: We don’t have to imagine it—we lived it. Think back to the COVID years: bare shelves, meat counters picked clean, and stores rationing what little they had left. That wasn’t a Franklin Horton novel. It was a stable system buckling almost overnight.

So, while others are wrapped up in their Normalcy Bias, telling themselves it’s not happening, or that it can’t happen again, or that it will definitely get better before it gets worse—while others are wrapped up in not considering the possibility, those of us who have the preparedness mindset—you’re looking at indicators, connecting the dots, spotting problems early, and acting in a way that keeps trouble from hitting your dinner table.

That’s not being paranoid. That’s logical, rational-minded preparedness in response to a potential developing reality. And that’s why I’m discussing this now—to make sure you have it on your radar. You’re aware. You’re watching. And you’re processing it as part of your OODA Loop. Now, let’s get into it.

Fertilizer Prices

The recent disruption in the Strait of Hormuz made headlines for its impact on oil. However, what didn’t make as many headlines is that the conflict with Iran is also affecting shipments of fertilizer, natural gas, and other global supplies we depend on. Those impacts include a lower amount of fertilizer coming to the U.S. and other nations, and what does get here costing more.

Part of the problem is that fertilizer isn’t a single product from a single source. All the ingredients are having problems.

• The cost of urea, one of the main fertilizer ingredients, jumped by more than 28%.
• Nitrogen, on the other hand, is tied to natural gas and is a key cost driver for many staple crops such as corn and wheat.
• Phosphorus comes from rock mined mostly in Kazakhstan and Vietnam and is being affected by the Straight of Hormuz.
• Potassium (potash), for most U.S. farmers, comes from Canada, and after years of selling for under $500 per ton, is now at $530 per ton.

The numbers back this up. An early April survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation—covering more than 5,700 farmers—found that in some areas of the country, 70% couldn’t afford all the fertilizer they needed. (Source)

That means two things:

• Prices will go up at the grocery store.
• It will become more difficult to keep the grocery store shelves stocked.

Fuel and Transportation Costs

Fuel affects not only transportation but also the costs of growing crops and raising animals. Yes, trucks run on fuel, but so too do the tractors and other equipment needed to keep most of society fed. Rising fuel costs are affecting all stages of the food production process and ultimately increasing what we pay at the register.

Then there are the recent transportation problems. The Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse in Maryland shut down access to the Port of Baltimore for weeks and rerouted cargo to other ports. Low water on the Mississippi has repeatedly slowed barge traffic and raised shipping costs. The Panama Canal cut transits during drought conditions, disrupting global shipping schedules. And now the Strait of Hormuz is another reminder of how vulnerable the global system we depend on to keep our food supply stocked really is.

Just-in-Time Transportation Problems

Compounding the transportation issues is that most of the food system runs on the very tight, just-in-time (JIT) method of keeping the shelves stocked and people fed. While a great example of efficiency, the JIT system leaves almost no cushion for disruptions. Products are timed to arrive right when they’re needed, not weeks ahead. A delay anywhere along the route between farm, processor, store, and shelf—any problem there—lands right in the lap of the consumers who need those supplies.

Layer rising fuel costs on top of a highly efficient operation with no buffers for hiccups, and small problems can turn into food shortages and empty spots on the shelf quicker than most people expect.

Increased Global Supply Chain Dependence

Everyone knows that the U.S. doesn’t grow or make everything it consumes. We rely on external sources for key ingredients and food. About 85% of our potash comes from Canada. We also import a steady flow of fresh fruits and vegetables, coffee, seafood, and a wide range of processed goods, all year-round.

That’s not a problem when everything runs smoothly. The trouble is that, as mentioned earlier, “smoothly” isn’t guaranteed. When you depend on others for key inputs, adjusting on the fly becomes much harder. Seafood and fresh produce, coffee, cocoa, and other U.S. staples often depend on foreign suppliers and tight harvest windows.

Unfortunately, when the system has problems, countries can’t flip a switch and replace months’ worth of imported product overnight. Domestic production takes time to ramp up—if it can ramp up at all.

Look at your local stores. Are all the shelves always full the way they were before COVID? What holes do you see? What items have been replaced by a lot of empty shelf space? Unfortunately, in increasingly difficult times, one hole on the shelf leads to another, and so on.

Does this make a U-turn? I hope so.

Worsening Drought

While the worsening drought is already causing problems, it will make things worse year over year as long as it continues. When you combine the drought with the other problems facing farmers and our food supply, the pressures compound, making already difficult times that much more of a struggle.

The numbers tell the story, and they’ve been trending the wrong way for years. Across much of the West and the Plains, annual rainfall has been below the long-term average, leaving soil dry before the growing season even begins.

The Colorado River, which feeds farms and ranches across seven states, is running well below its historical flows. Likewise, the major reservoirs it supplies, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, have sat near record-low levels for most of the past two decades.

The snowpack in the mountains that recharges those systems has decreased too, which means less runoff to carry farmers through the dry months. So, with years of below-normal rainfall, parts of the Central and Southern High Plains are in or heading towards serious water shortage problems.

As a result of the drought and other issues, USDA Mat projections showed wheat production down sharply, with winter wheat acreage at its lowest level since 1919. And the damage doesn’t stop with grain. When hay and pasture conditions deteriorate, cattle producers face higher feed costs, smaller herds, and in some cases, herd liquidations. That results in higher beef and dairy prices, which reduce our food options and eat away at already strained wallets.

What You Can Do to Prepare for a Food Crisis

Okay, so as preppers, we know that, yes, there may be supply chain interruptions and that our food supply is a somewhat fragile system. Therefore, being prudent in our preparedness means taking steps to keep ourselves and our families a step ahead of any food supply problems that head our way. Here are 10 tips to help you and your family stay full, healthy, and happy, no matter what happens to the food supply.

1. Maintain Up-to-Date Situational Awareness. Do what we’re doing here. Stay in tune with the indicators and be aware if anything changes. Early awareness tells you when to act.
2. Expand to a three-month supply. This will provide a buffer to keep you and your family fed if procuring food becomes a problem.
3. Buy staples in bulk when prices are good. The benefit of being prepared is being able to buy at the best time. Whatever you decide are the staples of your family’s preparedness food supply, stock up when prices are at their lowest.
4. Keep a simple emergency fund for food purchases. Cash on hand lets you buy ahead when you see prices or availability shifting. And don’t overlook food’s value as a barter item—when money is tight, or shelves are bare, what’s in your pantry can become trade currency. Just remember: once your long-term storage food is gone, it’s gone until you replace it, so build replacement into your plan from the start.
5. Build a diverse protein supply. Most survival food is carb-heavy. Offset that by focusing part of your supply on protein sources.
6. Limit Your Food Consumption Window. The narrower the eating window, the more likely you are to be conservative with your food consumption.
7. Grow sprouts and microgreens. These provide nutrition in days with almost no space or equipment. They work great for limited space and for keeping the fact that you have food off other people’s radar.
8. Maximize your gardening ability. Even containers or a few raised beds can produce fresh food. Focus on easy, high-yield crops for your area. If you’re already going with your garden, work to improve it. Preserve and store what you don’t eat. Improve over time.
9. Master basic food preservation. Learn water-bath or pressure canning, dehydration, and fermenting to stretch what you grow or purchase when bulk options are available.
10. Learn basic foraging for your area. Identify safe wild edibles to supplement your stores in a pinch. If you’re in a city, that may mean knowing where to find second-hand food or other local sources.

The Bottom Line On The Approaching Food Crisis

It’s a reality that threats targeting American agriculture and our food supply could, at a minimum, impact our pockets and, worse, lead to supply chain disruptions and societal instability.

The indicators are real. They’re in play—happening now—and have the potential and momentum to worsen over time. As individuals, we can’t repair society’s broken food supply system. However, as prepared people, we can build a buffer of self-sufficiency so that we aren’t among the masses who will be out of options if and when our just-in-time food supply system buckles.

Buying ourselves time and distance between a problem and its impact on our family is exactly why we all prepare.

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