The number of violent crimes repoted in Baltimore, Maryland are plummeting, and some local politicians are jousting over who should get credit.
As the Baltimore Sun reports, Baltimore State’s Attorney Ivan Bates and Mayor Brandon Scott, both mentioned as candidates for higher office in state politics, are eager to point the finger at themselves for the stark reduction in homicides and other violent crimes. Between 2015 and 2022, Balltimore had more than 300 homicides each year. Since 2023, however, the number of murders on city streets has dropped by more than 50%, with 197 recorded last year.
That’s a pretty amazing statistic, so it’s somewhat understandable that Bates and Scott are jockeying over who should get the credit.
State’s Attorney Ivan Bates touted his office’s increased convictions of repeat violent offenders during a city budget hearing last week. Meanwhile, Mayor Brandon Scott continues to emphasize the impact of the Group Violence Reduction Strategy he instituted, which aims to prevent crime through life coaching and other support services.
The city saw its lowest monthly homicide rate in recorded history in April. This year’s homicide count is on track to drop 23 percent compared with last year, following two prior years of significant decline.
“Through our tireless and successful prosecution of violent offenses, we have seen homicides drop in Baltimore by 63%” since 2022, said Bates, who took office in January 2023.
In an emailed statement to The Baltimore Sun, Scott acknowledged the state’s attorney’s impact — while also pushing back.
“We appreciate the SAO for prosecuting violent criminals based on the hard work done by the women and men of BPD, as directed by me through my police commissioner as a part of my comprehensive violence prevention plan,” Scott said. “But I want to be clear that each case he prosecutes is built on the backs of the hard work my officers and detectives do each day, and I am grateful to each of them for that work.”
While Scott and Bates are each patting themselves on the back over the much improved numbers in Baltimore’s murder rate, it’s worth noting that neither politician are pointing to the state’s draconian gun laws for the reduced violence in the city.
The politicians are also ignoring the inconvenient fact that violent crime in Baltimore has plunged even as the number of licensed concealed carry holders has increased fourfold across the state since 2022. Under the “may issue” licensing regime that existed prior to the Supreme Court’s decision in Bruen, there were about 50,000 active carry permits. Now that number is at least 200,000 and growing.
When Bruen was decided, Scott proclaimed the demise of the “may issue” policy would “make it more difficult for cities like Baltimore to create actual public safety,” “puts lives at risk and makes removing guns from our streets even more difficult.”
Yet the first full year that “shall issue” was the law of the land in Maryland, Baltimore saw fewer than 300 homicides for the first time since 2015, and the numbers have been trending down ever since.
Scott was wildly off-base in his prediction about the increasing number of concealed carry licensees, but what about the improved public safety in the city? Should his “comprehensive violence prevention plan” get any credit for the drop in violent crime?
While it probably hasn’t hurt crime-fighting efforts, I’d say the biggest reason why both fatal and non-fatal shootings have declined is, as Bates says, there are fewer prolific offenders on the streets. We know that a small number of offenders in any given city are responsible for an outsized share of violent crimes, and Bates says his office has been diligent in pursuing charges against the most prolific offenders.
Bates described during Wednesday’s budget hearing how his office has increased the incarceration of repeat violent offenders using firearms. In 2021 and 2022, there were 780 such cases that resulted in incarceration, while in 2023 and 2024, that number increased to 2,129, he said.
There’s also been a decrease in individuals being ordered to probation instead of serving prison time. In 2021 and 2022, 656 violent offenders were ordered to probation, and 781 served prison time. In contrast, in 2023 and 2024, 245 were ordered to probation, and 1,723 served prison time.
“More than double the number of violent repeat offenders were held accountable and removed from our communities,” he said. Bates added that under his leadership, prosecutors have been instructed to request enhanced penalties, including five years without the possibility of parole.
When Bates took office, there were around 5,000 to 6,000 “violent offenders running around the city with guns,” Bates said during Wednesday’s budget hearing. Today, he estimates his office has put “almost 2,500 of those individuals in prison.”
“It’s not something we’re proud of in a sense to just, to put people in jail,” he said. “But it’s in a sense that these are the individuals running around, shooting and killing individuals. We’ve targeted the right people to put them in prison.”
Now the state of Maryland needs to stop targeting lawful gun owners and criminalizing our right to keep and bear arms. Laws like Maryland’s Handgun Qualification License, the state’s numerous “gun-free zones”, and bans on so-called assault weapons and large capacity magazines aren’t stopping violent predators from illegally obtaining firearms and using them in crimes. Removing those offenders from society, on the other hand, has an immediate and positive effect on public safety, and one that can easily be accomplished without putting more possessory gun offenses on the books.
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