Dr. John Lott has been bringing the U.S. his statistical analysis on all things crime and firearm related via the Crime Research Prevention Center since 2013. Lott’s work on crime and the like dates back to a 1997 co-written article, “Crime, Deterrence and Right-To-Carry Concealed Handguns.” The CRPC has been producing annual reports on the number of concealed handgun permits since 2014. The latest, “Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States: 2024,” was released around December 2nd.
The authors of the report are as follows: John R. Lott, Jr., president of the CRPC, Carlisle E. Moody, research director and emeritus professor of economics from College of William & Mary, and Rujun Wang, a research associate.
From the abstract:
After a spike in 2022, the number of Concealed Carry Permit holders across the United States fell for a second consecutive year. The figure now stands at 21.46 million – a 1.8% drop since last year. A major cause of the continuous decline is that 29 states now have Constitutional Carry laws after Louisiana allowing permitless carry, effective July 4, 2024. In other words, 46.8% of Americans (157.6 million) now live in Constitutional Carry States, with 67.7% of the land in the country (2.57 million square miles). Unlike gun ownership surveys that may be affected by people’s unwillingness to answer personal questions, concealed handgun permit data is the only really “hard data” that we have, but it becomes a less accurate measure as more states become Constitutional Carry states.
The 73-page report is chock full of information, with nine areas of focus as outlined in the table of contents.
The report explores the exponential growth in the number of permit holders over the years. The authors did observe a slight drop in the issuance of permits over the last two years, however, they note that the “overall growth trend in the rate that people are carrying concealed handguns is Indisputable.” Figure one in the report shows a continual linear drop in the violent crime rate as lawful carry has increased, going back to 2004.
Post-Bruen, every state in the Union is so-called “shall-issue,” at least on paper. The authors observed that two more states became permitless, adopting Constitutional carry; Louisiana and South Carolina. The addition of those two states brought the total number of permitless states up to twenty-nine.
There were a number of takeaways concerning the number of permits in the U.S. One of the key findings highlighted was that “8.2% of American adults have permits. Outside of the restrictive states of California and New York, about 9.8% of adults have a permit.” Well over one-quarter of the states have a rate of 10% of the adult population being permit holders and “Indiana has the highest concealed carry rate —23.1%.”
The lowest rate of permit holders lists Rhode Island, at .2%. They note that Vermont is not applicable, as they have no permitting law on their books.
Interestingly enough, the rate of New Jersey permit holders is at 0.56% of the adult population. That number is just above California, a state that had a mixed bag of issuance of permits prior to Bruen, whereas New Jersey had a rate of near zero “civilian” carry permits issued. New Jersey’s rate is also double that of Rhode Island, who also had a mix on permit issuances prior to June of 2022.
For total numbers on the permits, the report states that “Florida is the state that has the most active concealed carry permits at 2.46 million, followed by Pennsylvania with 1.64 million and Texas with 1.58 million.” Rhode Island is at the bottom of the list on the actual number of active permits, which is said to be 1,813.
Revocation rates is another area where the authors spent some time. They observe that “it is very rare for permit holders to violate the law.” Minnesota is noted to have the lowest revocation rate, at 0.013%. Conversely, Rhode Island, with the fewest number of permits as well as the smallest rate of permit holders, has the highest revocation rate at 0.772%.
Section four of the report focuses on “Evidence that ‘Proper Cause’ requirements discriminate against Hispanic and Women when giving out permits.” Post 2022, there are supposed to be zero discretionary permitting standards on the books. The data being pulled from seems to be prior to 2022.
While the bias against Hispanic and female applicants was highlighted, the report noticeably did not mention the instances of potential racial bias in New Jersey’s permitting scheme. New Jersey is a state that does still have a discretionary, or subjective standard, on its books. That standard is used disproportionately against Blacks to deny them permits at rates more than double whites. Normalized data hints at rates being much higher than 2.5 times more Black denials over white.
Section six, “Examples of people who are facing death threats are prevented from getting permits in states with discretionary permitting rules,” might be somewhat mooted in a post-Bruen world. The history involving these denials is important though, as they highlight how discretionary measures have had a detriment to peoples’ safety.
One of the cited examples from New Jersey involved Israel Albert Almeida, circa 2015. Almeida failed in challenging his denial via litigation. He was eventually issued a permit when he applied again in 2016. It was said the police chief “approved Almeida’s new application on July 25, 2016, and Judge Conforti, without requiring a hearing, granted Almeida a carry permit on August 2, 2016.“
Almeida being issued a permit does not change the fact he suffered through a “tenant’s live-in boyfriend threaten[ing] to kill him.” It was presumed at the time that a second Almeida case would topple New Jersey’s entire permitting scheme. It was assumed Almeida was issued his permit not to allow another challenge.
Other areas of focus in the report include:
- The impact of concealed handgun permit fees and training requirements
- Deterring crime
- Why is the number of permits increasing
An astute observation was made in the report concerning armed Americans. “It’s not just that Americans think that having a gun makes them safer as individuals,” the authors stated. “They also feel better knowing that their neighbors are armed. A Rasmussen poll from this past June found that a 68-to-22 percent margin of Americans ‘feel safer in a neighborhood where guns are allowed.’” That’s a very telling statistic.
The work coming out of the Crime Research Prevention Center is pivotal. Lott et.al. provide a valuable gathering of data and analysis of what they learn. Time and time again, Lott and his associates at the CRPC have proved that as more law-abiding people are armed, the safer our society. If you have some time, take a read of the entire report. It has some great information in it.
About CRPC
The Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) is a research and education organization dedicated to conducting academic quality research on the relationship between laws regulating the ownership or use of guns, crime, and public safety; educating the public on the results of such research; and supporting other organizations, projects, and initiatives that are organized and operated for similar purposes. It has 501(C)(3) status, and does not accept donations from gun or ammunition makers or organizations such as the NRA or any other organizations involved in the gun control debate on either side of the issue. Nor do we accept donations from organizations involved in the debate over illegal immigration.
Our goal is to provide an objective and accurate scientific evaluation of both the costs and benefits of gun ownership as well as policing activities.
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