The election of Donald Trump doesn’t completely remove the threat to our Second Amendment rights at the federal level, but with Republicans in control of both the executive and legislative branches, the prospects of a federal “assault weapon” ban, “red flag” law, or other anti-2A measures becoming law over the next few years are pretty slim. Second Amendment groups are talking about ways to go on offense these days, and it’s the gun control groups that are scrambling to figure out how to defend their policies from court challenges and congressional oversight.
In the short term, Trump’s victory may have had a modest impact on gun sales. According to the National Shooting Sports Foundation, there were 1.514.773 background checks performed on retail transfers of firearms last month. That’s a drop of 5.1% compared to November, 2023, and far off the record for November sales set back in 2020, when 1,949,141 transfers took place.
If Kamala Harris had eked out a victory on Election Day, we likely would have seen a surge in sales, though probably not as great as what happened four years ago when Joe Biden was declared the winner of the presidential election. There were other factors at work in 2020, including the COVID pandemic and the civil unrest/rise in violent crime that also sparked a surge in sales. But the election of an anti-gun president tends to lead to at least a modest uptick in sales as well because of concerns over further infringements to our right to keep and bear arms.
There’s not the same sense of urgency when a pro-2A candidate like Trump wins office, and the fact that the GOP has majority control of both the House and Senate has undoubtedly put many gun owners at ease. But even without the fear factor, last month’s figures still show a robust interest in exercising our Second Amendment rights.
“November’s figures of over 1.5 million background checks for the retail purchase of a firearm shows that Second Amendment rights matter to Americans across the country and from all walks of life,” says NSSF’s Mark Oliva.
“Voters, particularly those who are gun owners, spoke loudly at the ballot box earlier this month when they rejected the onerous gun control agenda of the Biden-Harris administration,” he added.
“They continue to speak loudly, this time with their wallets, when they make the investment in their own personal protection. Further, this is not a one-off event. This has been a loud and continuous signal from Americans with over 1 million background checks every month for 64 consecutive months.”
Even with the dip in sales compared to last November, that streak doesn’t appear to be in danger of ending anytime soon. November and December are typically the strongest months for gun sales, and NSSF reported on Monday that there were more than 600,000 retail transfers just last week.
FBI NICS completed 169,906 background checks on “Black Friday” alone. The figure approximates firearm sales at retail on that day, although it also includes background checks for other purposes related to firearms such as approvals for concealed carry permits. NSSF will later this week release its Adjusted NICS figures for November reflecting only those background checks related to the sale of a firearm at retail.
NSSF has worked with firearm retailers to spread out special sales offers to customers throughout the week leading up to “Black Friday” so as not to overwhelm FBI NICS on a single day, which can result in longer than normal wait times.
“The background checks reported by the FBI are in keeping with the trends NSSF has seen throughout the year. While the overall trends are still coming off the peaks experienced in recent years, firearm sales remain consistently strong, with over a million per month for more than five years running,” explained Joe Bartozzi, NSSF President and CEO. “These figures tell us that there is a continued strong appetite for lawful firearm ownership by law-abiding Americans and that firearm manufacturers across the country continue to deliver the quality firearms our customers have come to expect.”
Though there’s not an existential and immediate threat to our Second Amendment rights, gun sales remain strong and are well above the pre-pandemic averages. That’s good news for the firearms industry, of course, but it’s also a positive sign for those of us intent on securing and strengthening our right to keep and bear arms for years to come.
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