We can only hope. The Supreme Court has once again scheduled both Snope v. Brown and Ocean State Tactical v. Neronha for debate in conference this week, keeping hope alive that the justices will grant cert to one or both cases next week.
This Friday’s conference will be the sixth appearance for Snope (which is the challenge to Maryland’s ban on so-called assault weapons), while Ocean State Tactical (taking on Rhode Island’s ban on “large capacity” magazines) is up for its seventh go-round behind closed doors as the justice decide what cases they’ll accept. The good news is that neither of these cases were disposed of in today’s orders, but that still doesn’t mean that either or both are guaranteed to be heard by SCOTUS in the future.
Ditto Ocean State Tactical.
Again, makes little sense to hold onto that interlocutory case just for a dissent from denial of cert, when Thomas and whoever else can say their piece in Snope.
So that gives me some hope still. However, my read could be totally wrong, and it may…
— Kostas Moros (@MorosKostas) February 24, 2025
I have to say that I’m still cautiously optimistic as well. Both Snope and Ocean State Tactical have been heard in conference since mid-December (December 4, in the case of Ocean State Tactical), which is more than enough time for Justice Thomas, Gorsuch, or Alito to write a dissent from denial of cert.
Of course, that’s also plenty of time for four justices to vote to hear one or both of these cases, and that doesn’t appear to have happened yet either.
We have no idea what’s being said during conference, or what’s causing the hold up, but there’s a slate of other Second Amendment cases that are heading the Court’s way, so the justices will have plenty of 2A topics to choose from in the near future.
A cert petition was filed in Antonyuk v. James (taking on New York’s post-Bruen carry laws) last month, and a reply is due from the New York AG this Wednesday, so that could be heard in conference in early March.
The Court has requested a response from the University of Michigan in Wade v. UofM, which challenges the university’s ban on concealed carry, and that response is due on March 10. That’s the same day that the Firearms Policy Coalition and Second Amendment Foundation must submit their response to the state of Minnesota in Jacobson v. Worth. The challenge to Minnesota’s ban on carrying for under-21s was successful at the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals, but Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison is intent on defending the ban til the bitter end.
The DOJ has a deadline of March 17 to reply to the cert petition in Perez-Garcia v. United States, which is an as-applied Second Amendment challenge to firearms-related pretrial release conditions. It’ll be interesting to see how AG Pam Bondi responds to the lawsuit and whether the Justice Department will defend the current law that allows for defendants to be prohibited from possessing a firearm before they’re convicted of a crime.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta have a March deadline of their own in B&L Productions v. Newsom, which takes on the state’s prohibition on contracting for, authorizing, or allowing the sale of any firearm or ammunition on state-owned property. The law is designed to kill off the biggest gun shows in the state, and has been upheld by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals. The state’s reply brief is due on March 20, about one week before the federal Justice Department’s deadline to reply in the last 2A-related case to come before the Court’s attention next month.
On March 28th the DOJ’s reply brief in Missouri v. United States is due before the justices. Missouri is seeking to defend the Second Amendment Preservation Act, which lower courts have thrown out a violation of the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution. The law was mean to block local and state law enforcement from cooperating with the feds in enforcing constitutionally suspect firearm statutes, but Missouri argues that the state has the power under the Tenth Amendment to decide which laws should be treated as null and void in the Show Me State.
As great as it would be for the Court to greenlight every one of these cases, that’s not likely to happen. Heck, at this point it’s an open question as to whether the justices will grant cert to any of these lawsuits. Fingers crossed that by this time next week we’re celebrating a grant in Snope and Ocean State Tactical instead of gritting our teeth in frustration.
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