Over the last couple of years, we’ve seen a significant drop in the homicide rate. It’s an unprecedented drop, and while many are claiming that it’s just a restoration to pre-COVID norms, that’s clearly not true. After all, the drop is more than the increase we saw starting in 2020.
So what gives?
Well, while the media might try to spin it as some approach or another being effective, the fact is that these are all localized, yet the drop is nationwide.
At American Rifleman, podcast guest John Lott has thoughts.
This is completely counter to the narrative the gun-control groups promote—and that many in the mainstream media tout—so, I asked, “But John, this can’t be possible because gun sales have been going up and up. The number of people with firearms has gone up and up. Concealed carry permits, in the states where they still keep track of them, not constitutional-carry states, has gone up and up. So, how could this possibly be the case when a lot more people have guns and the media always tells us that means murder rates go up?”
“Yeah, it’s a real mystery,” said Lott, sarcastically. “Who could figure it out? Maybe somebody ought to write a book on that. But, you know, I think there are lots of things that have affected crime this last year. It’s not rocket science. If you want to reduce crime, you have to make it riskier for criminals to commit crime. And you can do that with higher arrest rates, higher conviction rates, longer prison terms, but also by allowing people to be able to defend themselves. And you look at some place like Washington, D.C., where Trump federalized law enforcement. He basically did all those things. He put more boots on the ground in terms of arresting people. Judge Jeanine Pirro, who is the U.S. attorney there, is in charge of prosecuting crimes by adults. She’s been a huge change from the Biden administration. D.C. is unique in terms of the U.S. attorney there is responsible for prosecuting crimes for adults as compared to other places in the U.S. During the Biden administration, the Democratic U.S. attorney there in 2022 refused to prosecute about two-thirds of arrests. In 2023, he refused to prosecute something like 56 percent of arrests. Obviously, Pirro is the opposite.
“But on top of that, Trump did other things. It was taking eight months to go and get a concealed-carry permit in D.C. prior to the Trump administration. They put pressure on D.C. and basically got it down to two weeks for going and doing a permit.”
He’s got a point, as does the fact that this drop came after the Bruen decision ended “may issue” permitting throughout the nation.
Even if you don’t see the correlation as having any meaning at all–and sure, correlation doesn’t necessarily equal causation–you have to notice something important. Causation should cause correlation, and if more guns mean more crime, the simple fact that it dropped and dropped so hard following both what Lott mentions above and what we’re seeing across the United States proves that the issue is not now, nor ever was, how many guns law-abiding citizens owned.
Podcast host Frank Miniter notes that we’ve seen a massive amount of gun buying over recent years, all while anti-gunners claim more guns mean more crime, yet we’re seeing the opposite. It’s just not materializing.
The least generous reading of what’s going on is that guns have no impact at all on crime. That’s the most conservative take one can reasonably get out of this, and yet, that’s not what we’re seeing reported.
And Lott has looked at a lot more data than I have. I have no doubt that actual prosecutions in DC are helping there, and if he’s confident that a faster turnaround time on permitting is having a positive effect, then I’m not going to question him.
Really, though, watching anti-gunners twist themselves into contortions trying to dismiss this is going to be better than anything on television for the next couple of years, and we all know it.
Editor’s Note: The radical Left will stop at nothing to enact their radical gun control agenda and strip us of our Second Amendment rights.
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